Trade Disruption 2025: What Australian Importers & Exporters Need to Know

Recent global trade developments are sending shockwaves through international supply chains, with significant implications for Australian businesses. For those reliant on overseas freight and exports, understanding the impact of these shifts — particularly from the U.S. — is crucial to staying ahead.

Trade Shockwaves from the U.S.

In early April, the Trump administration introduced a 10% blanket tariff on all U.S. imports. For Australia, this means that most goods exported to the U.S. are now subject to this additional charge, with a few key exceptions — notably steel and aluminium, which have instead been hit with a 25% tariff increase.

While the U.S. only accounts for around 4.6% of Australia’s total exports, these measures will still impact certain sectors more than others. For exporters of steel and aluminium products, this could represent a significant commercial challenge.

Adding further complexity:

• The U.S. also introduced reciprocal tariffs on goods from 90 countries — Australia is not among them.
• On 9 April, the U.S. temporarily suspended these additional tariffs for 90 days for most countries (excluding China and Hong Kong).
• A 125% reciprocal tariff on Chinese, Hong Kong, and Macau-origin goods came into effect on 10 April, compounding existing duties and further slowing trade between Asia and the U.S.

Why This Matters for Australian Businesses

There are no immediate major changes to tariffs on imports into Australia, but as a resource-rich, trade-dependent nation, we are highly exposed to global disruptions — especially given China is our largest trading partner.

On the ocean freight front, we’re seeing:

• A surge in blank sailings, exceedingly even COVID-era figures.
• Trans-Pacific schedule reliability collapsing.
• East Coast U.S.-bound volumes from Asia dropping by 42%, according to Sea-Intelligence.

Ocean freight contract negotiations — typically wrapped by April — remain unresolved. With tariffs shifting and rate volatility increasing, trust between shippers and carriers is waning. Additionally, the upcoming Section 301 proposal, targeting Chinese-built vessels, is already prompting global fleet realignment — further impacting services to Australia and New Zealand.

A Word of Caution on U.S. Declarations

Exporters to the U.S. must be cautious when declaring country of origin. U.S. Customs is tightening enforcement, particularly around Chinese-origin goods transiting through third countries like Australia.

Misdeclaration — intentional or not — carries severe penalties. If your goods originate in China, Hong Kong, or Macau, they must be declared as such, regardless of where they’re stored or shipped from.

What Australian Businesses Can Do Now

At Transitainer WA, we’re actively supporting clients in adapting to this changing landscape. Our advice:

• Strengthen your cash flow to manage unexpected cost surges.
• Recalibrate inventory planning — longer lead times and transit delays are here to stay.
• Review sourcing risks and diversify where possible.
• Stay compliant — especially for U.S.-bound freight with any CN/HK content.

Final Thoughts

One thing is clear: trade flexibility is gone. The environment is volatile, and trust in systems must be earned through service, transparency, and consistency.

Australia may not be at the centre of the current tariff battle, but the consequences will still be felt — particularly through freight capacity, cost, and reliability. Businesses that prepare, plan, and partner wisely will be the ones that thrive.